Good afternoon, good evening, good zinta—whatever it is where you are. Quick hit today on the latest grading numbers and what they really mean for sports, non-sports, and TCG. Spoiler: it’s not a monolith, and one spike doesn’t equal “the hobby is saved” or “we’re all doomed.”
TL;DR
- PSA graded ~2.0M cards last month; CGC ~530k.
- PSA’s TCG total was ~1.226M; non-sports was ~50k (tiny slice of that TCG pie).
- The big October jump looks mostly natural (seasonality, business days, new capacity), not a conspiracy.
- Backlogs + slow turn times are the problem. If TCG cools, grading volume will cool.
- AI at PSA? Almost certainly “AI-assisted + human confirmation.” You don’t grade in under a minute without software.
- Quality control: more volume = more errors. The question is how much error we’re willing to tolerate.
- CGC is a real competitor in TCG; Beckett could roar back at the high end if properly capitalized; SGC has a real lane right now for older/semi-vintage with fast, affordable turns.
The Numbers (and what matters)
I’m not going to over-index on every brand’s share. For percentage trends, PSA and CGC tell the story; the rest you judge by raw counts.
- Sports: ~703k at PSA last month; pretty flat over multi-year windows.
- TCG (incl. non-sports) at PSA: ~1.226M. True non-sports inside that = ~50k, so TCG is doing the heavy lifting.
- CGC is way up YoY in TCG, even if MoM is choppier. They’re not PSA, but the delta isn’t as sacred as people think.
Is the October spike “natural”?
Probably. Think more business days, capacity shifts (Florida coming online, resource rebalancing), and a cyclical October pop (was a peak last year, too). Looks dramatic on a chart; feels pretty normal in context.
The TCG “Collapse” Question
Sealed TCG has pulled back; graded TCG usually lags that. If there’s a deeper TCG slide, grading will reflect it with a delay—especially with current submission → check-in lag.
I’m seeing month-plus just to get checked in, and quoted bulk due dates up to six months after receipt. If you assume millions of cards are sitting in the snake’s belly, you can imagine a temporary glut of slabs hitting in a softer market. That won’t crush everything equally: strong IPs/keys/conditions will hold up; the “junk-slab era” stuff won’t.
Turnaround Times > Sticker Price (for a lot of us)
Prices matter, sure. But time is money. In sports, six months is an eternity (injuries, call-ups, playoff runs). In non-sports, catalysts exist (new shows/movies, character heat). Faster turns enable smarter timing. Lower the price and the turn time? Healthier market. Right now it’s: slow → prices creep up → people send more → still slow → you get cards back after the moment.
Is PSA Using AI?
Short answer: yes—in some form.
They openly push sub-minute per-card grading throughput. You don’t do that at industrial scale without computer vision + software assistance. Most likely model: AI grades, human confirms/exceptions. I’m fine with that. Consistency beats vibes.
Quality Control Reality
Scale begets errors: mislabels, misgrades, mechanical slips. Humans + software still make mistakes. The only question is: what error rate is acceptable before confidence dips? We’ll find out in the data, not in press releases.
Where the Competitors Fit (Right Now)
CGC
- Legit player in TCG now. Cheaper than PSA; still long turn times.
- If CGC consistently ran half PSA’s turnaround while keeping prices below, secondary spreads would matter less. Time advantage > small price edge.
Beckett
- Sleeping giant. Subgrades and Black Label still resonate at the high end.
- If they got real capital + modern ops, they’d threaten PSA where nuance matters (big cards where a 9 vs 10 is a five-figure jump).
SGC
- PSA wants to brand them “boutique.” Whatever.
- For 70s/80s/semi-vintage, SGC’s eye-appeal weighting and fast, affordable service is useful.
- Perfect for “raw card review” in the real world: get a quick, credible opinion (say, an SGC 8/9), then decide to crack to PSA or sell as-is.
- Their grading on true vintage is closer to PSA than the others; fees + shipping are sane; typical turns are weeks, not seasons.
Non-Sports Reality Check
- Non-sports inside PSA’s TCG monster is a rounding error (~50k), but the IP dynamics matter.
- Big catalysts (e.g., a Mandalorian movie) can swing character markets.
- Junk-slab era still exists: lots of $5–$10 holders chasing $0 value. Grade selectively.
Actionable Takeaways
- Submit smarter, not more. Target key characters, true condition outliers, and catalyst windows.
- Mind the clock. If timing matters, consider SGC for semi-vintage or pre-PSA “sanity checks.”
- Expect noise. October spikes happen. Don’t read one month as a referendum on “hobby health.”
- Assume AI. PSA is almost certainly AI-assisted; judge them on outcomes (consistency, QC), not slogans.
- Diversify graders by use-case. PSA for value max on blue chips, CGC for TCG value/volume plays, SGC for speed + vintage lane, Beckett for high-end nuance if/when they re-arm.
Final Word
Grading isn’t the hobby—it’s the toll road on the hobby. Used well, it adds clarity and liquidity. Used poorly, it taxes you twice: cash now, opportunity later. The best stuff tends to go up over time. The worst stuff… doesn’t. Choose accordingly.
Drop your takes in the comments—tell me where I’m right, wrong, or annoyingly in the middle. And if you enjoyed this, like/subscribe so the algorithm lets other non-sports sickos find us.
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